Abstract:

One of the shortcoming problems leading to the quality of plan is that of the forecast, especially the forecast of land-use demand. Research and application of quantitative forecasting menthod in the current period is necessary and practical meaning for Vietnam. This paper introduces a model for forecasting land use demands for rural development in Yen Dung district, Bac Biang province. Accordingly, an area is considered to identify for 41 types of land that are equivalent to 41 variations of the model. These variables were divided into 4 groups, each group uses with different methods for determining such as under the land use planning on the allocation; under the current status of land use; under the norms of land use according to land elasticity coefficient; under the optimized mathematical model of multiple objectives. The test results at Tu Mai commune showed that types of land forecasted using this model have more advantages than the previously used methods such as minimize the subjective qualitative imposition of the planner, higher practicability and feasibility