Abstract:

This paper presents methods of integrating the advantages of models, including the Logistic, Markov and Cellular Automata regression models to provide forecasts of land use changes in the Red River Delta. Increasing dynamics of aquaculture land and residential land in Giao Thuy district were identified: household density, proportion of people in working age, distance to the main road system, Distance to district administrative center and distance to sea dykes. The results of the model show changes in the spatial distribution of land for aquaculture and residential land from 1989 to 2019 in Giao Thuy. Meanwhile, residential land has increased more than 700 hectares in the past 20 years, and is It is forecasted to increase by nearly 1,000 ha in 2019. The research findings in this paper will provide valuable information for planners, local policy makers, in the formulation of urban development plans and environmental management strategies. Sustainable school.