Archives
 
Year 2024
 
Vol 65, Issue 2, [04 - 2024] - Full papers

Future climate projections for Vietnam: temperature and precipitation changes under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios

DOI:10.46326/JMES.2024.65(2).08

  • Affiliations:

    1 Hanoi University of Mining and Geology, Hanoi, Vietnam
    2 Vietnam National University of Agriculture, Hanoi, Vietnam

  • *Corresponding:
    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
  • Received: 27th-Nov-2023
  • Revised: 2nd-Mar-2024
  • Accepted: 22nd-Mar-2024
  • Online: 1st-Apr-2024
Pages: 66 - 75
Views: 1578
View onlineView online
Downloads: 35
Downdload PDF
★★★★★Rating: , Total rating: 0
  • ★
  • ★
  • ★
  • ★
  • ★
Yours rating

Abstract:

The IPCC's 6th Assessment Report in 2023 highlights Vietnam's undeniable vulnerability to climate change, ranking it among the most severely impacted countries. In response, experts developed the CMIP6-VN dataset, offering high-resolution downscaled temperature and precipitation data tailored for Vietnam using the CMIP6 GCMs model. This study aims to analyze climate projections for Vietnam throughout the 21st century, incorporating data from 25 models to provide valuable insights into potential future climate scenarios. The investigation compares projected temperature and precipitation changes for the mid-term (2040÷2059) and long-term (2080÷2099) periods relative to the historical period (1980÷2014) in the six sub-climatic regions of the country. The results show a consistent upward trend in average temperature, projecting an average of 2.30C (SSP2-4.5) and 4.30C (SSP5-8.5) increases by the end of the century. The Northern regions, especially the Northwest, are experiencing the most significant temperature rise, while moving towards lower latitudes, the temperature increase becomes less severe. The Southern regions, on the other hand, are experiencing a relatively lowest temperature increase. Rainfall variability indicates a slight increase across Vietnam by the century’s end, aligned with rising temperatures, though not as pronounced as the temperature changes. This study emphasizes temperature disparities between the Northern and Southern regions, with the Northwest showing the highest increase and the Southern region displaying the least prominent rise. Policymakers and stakeholders can use these research insights to devise effective adaptation and mitigation strategies in addressing climate change challenges in Vietnam. Continued monitoring and further research are essential to enhance the accuracy and reliability of climate projections in the region, enabling Vietnam to better prepare and respond to the inevitable impacts of climate change.

How to Cite
Tran, Q.Anh, Nguyen, N.Hong Thi, Do, H.Thi and Tran, H.Thu Thi 2024. Future climate projections for Vietnam: temperature and precipitation changes under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Journal of Mining and Earth Sciences. 65, 2 (Apr, 2024), 66-75. DOI:https://doi.org/10.46326/JMES.2024.65(2).08.
References

Chand, N., Nguyen, T. D., Nguyen, H. T., and Tran, T. T. (2020). Tidal Energy Potential Assessment in Vietnam. Energies, 13(21), 5696. doi:10.3390/en13215696.

Cressman, G. P. (1959). An operational objective analysis system. Mon Weather Rev, 87, 367-374.

Desmet, Q., and Ngo‐Duc, T. (2022). A novel method for ranking CMIP6 global climate models over the southeast Asian region. International Journal of Climatology, 42(1), 97-117. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7234.

Espagne, E., and Magacho, G. (2022). National Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation (Doctoral dissertation, Agence Française de Développement).

Espagne, E., Ngo-Duc, T., Nguyen, M. H., Pannier, E., Woillez, M. N., Drogoul, A., ... and Vu, C. T. (2021). Climate change in Viet Nam; Impacts and adaptation. A COP26 assessment report of the GEMMES Viet Nam project. Paris: Agence Française de Développement.

Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC). (2023a). Climate change 2022 - impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Working group ii contribution to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (1st ed.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/ 9781009325844.

Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC). (2023b). Climate change 2021 - the physical science basis: Working group i contribution to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (1st ed.). Cambridge University Press. https:// doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.

IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.

Kieu, N.P., Stott, P.Z., Zwiers, F.W. (2018). Attribution of the Record Rainfall in Northern Vietnam During July 2016. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Maurer, E. P. (2007). Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California, under two emissions scenarios. Clim Change 82, 309-325.

Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment - MONRE. (2020). Climate change, sea level rise scenarios for Viet Nam. Viet Nam Natural Resources, Environment and Mapping Publishing House. (in Vietnamese).

Nguyen-Duy, T., Ngo-Duc, T., and Desmet, Q. (2023). Performance evaluation and ranking of CMIP6 global climate models over Vietnam. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 14(6), 1831-1846. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2023.454.

Nguyen-Thi, H., Matsumoto, J., Ngo-Duc, T. (2018). Climate projection for precipitation and temperature over Vietnam using a multi-model ensemble for the middle and late 21st century. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 5(1), 76.

Nguyen-Xuan, T., Ngo-Duc, T., Kamimera, H., Trinh-Tuan, L., Matsumoto, J., Inoue, T., and Phan-Van, T. (2016). The Vietnam gridded precipitation (Vngp) dataset: Construction and validation. SOLA, 12(0), 291-296. https://doi. org/10.2151/sola.2016-057.

Nguyen, D. N. and Nguyen, T. H. (2004). Vietnamese climate and climatic resources. Hanoi Agriculture Press.

Phan, V.T., Nguyen, L.T., Bui, D.T., Nguyen, K.V. (2018). Projection of climate change and its impacts on rice production in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta using PRECIS. American Journal of Climate Change, 7(1), 1-16.

Rasmussen, D. J., Meinshausen, M., and Kopp, R. E. (2016). Probability-weighted ensembles of u. S. County-level climate projections for climate risk analysis. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55(10), 2301-2322. https:// doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0302.1.

Shepard, D. (1968). A two-dimensional interpolation function for irregularly-spaced data. Proceedings of the 1968 23rd ACM National Conference, 517-524. https://doi. org/10.1145/800186.810616.

Switzer, P. (2014). Kriging. In N. Balakrishnan, T. Colton, B. Everitt, W. Piegorsch, F. Ruggeri, and J. L. Teugels (Eds.), Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online (1st ed.). Wiley. https://doi. org/10.1002/9781118445112.stat03708.

Tran-Anh, Q., Ngo-Duc, T., Espagne, E. and Tuan-Trinh, L. (2022). A high-resolution projected climate dataset for Vietnam: construction and preliminary application in assessing future change. Journal of Water and Climate Change jwc2022144, https://doi.org/10.2166/ wcc.2022.144.

Tran-Anh, Q., Ngo-Duc, T., Espagne, E., and Trinh-Tuan, L. (2023). A 10-km CMIP6 downscaled dataset of temperature and precipitation for historical and future Vietnam climate. Scientific Data, 10(1), 257. https://doi.org/10. 1038/s41597-023-02159-2.

Wood, A. W., Leung, L. R., Sridhar, V. and Lettenmaier, D. P. (2004). Hydrologic Implications of Dynamical and Statistical Approaches to Downscaling Climate Model Outputs. Clim Change, 62, 189-216 (2004).

Wu, T. and Li, Y. (2013). Spatial interpolation of temperature in the United States using residual kriging. Applied Geography, 44, 112-120.

Other articles