Abstract:

The land use change model is a useful tool in evaluating driving forces of change land use and forecasting land use. The objective of this paper is predicting land use change in 2021, Thai Thuy District, Thai Binh based application model LCM (Land Cover Modeler). Land Cover Modeler is integrated of neuron network and CA-Markov. This model used the data including land use 1989, 2001, 2005, 2013, geomorpholy, penology, and distance from shoreline, erosion and accretion. Neuron network is used to calculate transition potential of land use classes. After that, the transition potential of land use classes are input on CA-Markov to predict land use. Accuracy of LCM is 0,71 in 2009 and 0,74 in 2013. The results of forecast land use in 2021 compared to 2013 shows that residential land will increase from 14,73% to 16,9%, aquaculture land will increase from 6,12% to 7,38% and mangrove forests will increase from 4,17% to 4,8%. Meanwhile, the paddy and vegetables will decrease from 46,69% to 44,43%