Abstract:

Climate change and sea level rise affect on people and nature; Groundwater is also strongly affected by the these changes. There are many methods of calculating and forecasting the effects of climate change and sea level rise on groundwater and most reliable method of numerical models. On the basis of the hydrogeological characteristics studies in coastal areas of Bacbo plain and the scenarios of climate change and sea level rise, the authors have developed prediction impact model of climate change and sea level rise on groundwater in the region. Prediction model is built with 53 SEAWAT software under the lower, medium and high emission scenarios. The predicting results show that the changing trend of salt-fresh water is so complex, salt water area increased over the years and increases with the greenhouse gas emission levels. Saltwater area in Holocene aquifer in Thai Binh province and northeast of Nam Dinh province is increasing quite fast, saltwater area will be reach to 5897.13 km2 in 2100 (A2 scenario). Pleistocene aquifer in Southeast region is the most strongly influenced, saltwater boundary is expanding and area of saltwater in 2100 is 4896.56 km2 (A2 scenario).